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    油價恐超跌 歐佩克或減產抬價

      本月13日,紐約原油期貨價格連續第12個交易日下跌,跌幅超7%,創下近三年來最大單日跌幅。當天,紐約原油期貨價格和倫敦布倫特原油期貨價格收盤較10月3日創下的高點分別下跌了27.11%和24.12%。此后的幾個交易日,國際油價雖然略有反彈,但漲幅不大。有分析人士認為當前油價存在超跌可能,如果歐佩克做出減產決定,則國際油價可能觸底反彈。

     

      多種原因導致本輪國際油價下跌

      有專家認為,油價下跌確實存在供給側的原因,主要是美國給予一些伊朗石油進口方暫時性制裁豁免,但這不足以讓油價跌幅超過20%。市場對于需求側的擔憂被過度放大,一些交易員跟風交易也導致油價加速下跌。另外,此前油價長時間高位運行,本輪油價下跌也有周期性因素。

     

      產油國持續增產導致供大于求

      另一方面,產油國持續增產導致供大于求也是近期國際油價大幅下跌的重要原因。國際能源署近日發布報告說,年中以來,中東一些國家、俄羅斯和美國原油增產量已經超過伊朗和委內瑞拉原油減產量。石油輸出國組織歐佩克預測,2018年全球對歐佩克所產原油日均需求為3260萬桶,比上一年減少90萬桶;2019年將進一步降至3150萬桶。

     

      歐佩克面臨減產抬價壓力

      在這種情況下,分析人士普遍認為,歐佩克將面臨減產壓力。據報道,歐佩克方面已在討論把原油日產量削減140萬桶。專家認為,歐佩克很可能在下次會議上宣布減產,布倫特油價有望因此回升至每桶75美元水平。

    戰略合作
    大家赢彩票

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